AL-Qadisiyah Journal For Administrative and Economic sciences

Using some mathematical models to forecast the numbers of first grade primary students in Basra Governorate

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

zainab sami Yaseen 1
Sanaa Mohammed Naeem 2
Shaymaa Qasim Mohsin 3

1 Southern technical university / medical technical institute of Basrah

2 Southern technical university/college of health& medical techniqnes in basrah

3 University of Basra/college of Administration Southern technical university / technical institute of Basrah

https://doi.org/10.33916/qjae.2026.02339355
Abstract
The research dealt with one of the most important topics in the statistical and educational aspect, which is predicting the numbers of first-grade students, as it is important for educational, political and urban institutions, using different predictive models (Box-Jenkins models of the first order and exponential models) with the aim of conducting the forecasting process for those numbers and comparing these models using the mean absolute percentile error (MAPE) standard and selecting the best model in light of these indicators that differ from each other.tire study without repeating the introduction or including unnecessary background information.

Keywords

Forecasting
Box-Jenkins models
Autoregressive
Moving average
ARMA
Crossmark
AL-Qadisiyah Journal For Administrative and Economic sciences
Volume 28, Issue 2
Summer 2026
Pages 339-355

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